The Next Generation of National Climate Plans Must Phase Out Fossil Fuels

September 24, 2024 – The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is calling on governments to deliver ambitious, specific, and actionable national climate plans for the coming decade. We have signed an open letter setting out ten tests for 1.5°C-aligned plans and joined Mission 2025 to show our support for governments stepping up. Both initiatives come as the Troika of UN climate presidencies 2023-25—UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil—are hosting a a high-level event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly Thursday to mobilize 1.5°C-aligned action.

Due in early 2025, these nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement are the first test of the COP 28 agreement to transition away from fossil fuels. In previous rounds, most major producers of coal, oil, and gas either did not mention the sector or said they planned to continue or increase production.

“Claiming to lead on climate while continuing the expansion of oil, gas, and coal production is indefensible at this point,” says Natalie Jones, policy advisor at IISD. “Governments need a plan for reducing reliance on fossil fuel production. The bare minimum is ending new exploration licensing. This is the moment to get serious about the carbon budget.”

Peer-reviewed science shows there is no room for new coal, oil, and gas development under the 1.5°C global warming limit agreed in Paris. In 1.5°C-aligned scenarios, coal production declines by 95% by 2050 and oil and gas production by at least 65%.

To align with 1.5°C, NDCs should include a commitment to no new coal, oil, and gas exploration licences, as well as target dates for ending public financial flows for fossil fuels and winding down production. To be credible, these targets should be coupled with plans to diversify fossil fuel-based economies and ease the transition for affected workers and communities.

Finance is key to unlocking ambition. Governments must agree on a robust climate finance package at the next UN climate summit in November, including support for transition in fossil fuel-producing countries in the Global South.

All countries, rich and poor, can stop sending public money in the wrong direction. Globally, governments spent at least USD 1.5 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies in 2022, worsening climate pollution and holding back the shift to clean energy. NDCs should, in line with existing commitments, include clear and ambitious target years to eliminate these subsidies and commit to developing national roadmaps that guide implementation. Doing so frees up the public budget for social priorities like education, health care, clean energy, and poverty alleviation. Developed countries can channel some of the money saved into climate finance.

“Despite years of promises, progress on ending fossil fuel subsidies has been painfully slow,” says Chris Beaton, a director with the IISD Energy Program. “Governments must support people, not fuels. That means repurposing subsidies, public finance, and state companies’ investments for social protection and the clean energy transition.”

Notes for editors

1. UN TV Webcast 
2. Presidencies Troika Letter To Parties 
3. 10 tests for countries’ new climate plans that will make or break 1.5°C
4. Global coalition launches to boost government climate plans ahead of critical UN deadline 
5. How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans 
6. How the UNFCCC Can Tackle Fossil Fuel Subsidies at COP 28 and Beyond

Media Contact

Megan Darby, senior communications officer, IISD: mdarby@iisd.org